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Man United vs Man City

Sun 13 Sep 2026, 15:30 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Man United win: 34.5%

Draw: 23.2%

Man City win: 42.4%

Predicted: Man City

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 70.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.89

More corners: Man City (39.1% home / 60.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Man City

Yes

Probability Man City wins or draws: 70.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (71.0% model probability) High

Corners Man City (more corners) (61.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Man City win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.